Labour grip on Wales under threat
Labour is bracing for a potential historic defeat in Thursday’s Caerphilly by-election, as a surge from Reform UK and Plaid Cymru threatens to end more than a century of dominance in one of its safest Welsh seats.
The South Wales Valleys constituency has been held by Labour continuously since the creation of the Senedd in 1999. It has elected Labour MPs to Westminster for over 100 years.
But fresh polling shows the party trailing badly ahead of the vote on Thursday (October 23) – a result that could cost it control of the Welsh Parliament.
A Survation poll puts Reform UK on 42 per cent, Plaid Cymru on 38 per cent, and Labour languishing in third place on 12 per cent. The Conservatives trail with just 4 per cent.
“This is now a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid,” said Dr Jac Larner, politics lecturer at Cardiff University, warning the result could “set the narrative” for next year’s Senedd elections.
Reform taps disillusioned Tory base
Reform’s candidate Llyr Powell has gained strong local support among older voters, with the poll suggesting around 70 per cent of former Conservative voters have switched to Nigel Farage’s populist party.
Although just 2.9 per cent of Caerphilly residents were born outside the UK, immigration has been a central theme of Reform’s campaign, mirroring its national messaging.
Plaid Cymru’s candidate Lindsay Whittle has meanwhile captured much of Labour’s former left-leaning base, appealing to younger and progressive voters disillusioned with the governing party’s direction.
Stakes high for Starmer and Conservatives
A loss in Caerphilly would leave Labour with 28 seats in the 60-member Senedd, stripping it of its effective majority and forcing First Minister Vaughan Gething to rely on Plaid or independent members to pass legislation.
Nationally, the result would send shockwaves through Westminster. Analysts say it would raise serious questions for Sir Keir Starmer, whose party’s support in Wales has fallen from 40 per cent in 2021 to just 14 per cent in recent polls.
For the Conservatives, the by-election is equally troubling, with Reform’s rise underscoring growing disillusionment among traditional Tory supporters.
With just one day to go, the Caerphilly contest has become a crucial test of voter sentiment across the UK’s devolved nations and a warning that Wales, once Labour’s most reliable stronghold, may no longer be secure.
