Our final geographical area in the series takes us to Oceania
Australia
2026 is a big year for South Australia and Victoria. The two Australian states are going to the polls in state elections this year. Both states are currently run by the Australian Labor Party – who in both states – hold significantly more seats than the Liberal party.
Opinion polling continues to show the Australian Labor Party ahead of their Liberal opposition in South Australia. The ALP is currently polling at 41% in the Primary vote and at 61% in the two-party preference vote. Meanwhile, the Liberals trail behind at 21% and 39% respectively in those polls. It therefore looks likely that Labor will retain control of the state.
Across the border in Victoria, the LNP (Liberal National Party) leads in the polls, with around 37% in the primary vote and with just over 50% in the two-party preferred polling.
The polls are too close to accurately predict any outcome of this election, but it seems the Liberal National Party may just be able to snatch control of the state if they play their cards right.
New Zealand
Kiwis are set to head to the polls this year too, for a general election. The current government, a coalition between the National Party, NZ First and the ACT are propping up the government. With 68 of the overall 120 seats in the nation’s unicameral parliament.
Opinion polls place the Labour Party marginally ahead of the National Party, with NZ First and the ACT both between 5% and 10% in the polls. The Greens have positioned themselves in third currently, at around 11%.
Current polling makes a coalition government very likely for the next parliament as seat predictions predict either a Labour–Greens–Māori coalition or a National-ACT-NZ First coalition, but with a reduced majority.
Fiji
Fiji is set for a general election too. The nation is yet to announce the date of the election. There is currently no party with a majority in the Parliament, but FijiFirst is the largest party currently. However, a coalition between the People’s Alliance and SODELPA held FijiFirst back from forming a government.
Opinion polling for the election has been scarce. But the latest poll, which took place in February last year, suggests that Rabuka remains more popular than his predecessor, Bainimarama.
Impact for the UK?
Both Australia and New Zealand are vitally important allies and trade partners with the UK. The implications of election results in these regions extend well beyond the borders and will likely have some impact on the UK, especially in relation to defence, intelligence sharing and trade.
List of all elections taking place in Oceania in 2026:
