Whoever said campaigns don’t matter?
There was a time when pundits confidently claimed the closing weeks of an election campaign rarely shifted the dial. Voters, it was said, had already made up their minds – consciously or otherwise – months before polling day.
No-one says that anymore – particularly as Australians prepare to go to the polls tomorrow, Saturday May 3, which for us in Britain will be tonight due to the time difference.
Theresa May in 2017
The UK had its wake-up call in 2017, when Theresa May’s commanding poll lead vanished after a bungled manifesto launch.
This week, Canada’s Liberals – written off for the past three years – pulled off a fourth term. Now, with Australians heading to the polls, could we see history echo again?
Werribee swing
For much of the past year, the Liberal-National Coalition looked best placed to edge into office – either outright or via minority rule. By-elections had shown sharp swings against Labor, including in Werribee, which saw a 10% shift. That’s normally a sign the tide’s turning.
But since the campaign began, Labor has clawed back a narrow yet consistent lead.
Aussie issues: living, Medicare, housing
The contexts in Canada and Australia differ. In Canada, Trump-era trade tensions and the Liberals’ post-Trudeau reset under Mark Carney shaped the outcome. In Australia, traditional issues have taken centre stage: the cost of living, Medicare, and housing.
To retain a majority, Labor must hold at least 76 seats – just one down from their current 77. The Coalition needs to gain 18. It’s tight.
Cost of living remains the top concern for Australians. The Coalition has hammered this issue relentlessly – from petrol prices to housing to power bills – while portraying Labor’s Voice referendum as costly and divisive.
Yet Labor has responded with a Budget packed with giveaways, including more tax cuts and promises to shore up Medicare, especially around the growing bulk billing crisis.
Albanese polling ahead of Dutton
Crucially, Anthony Albanese polls far ahead of Peter Dutton as preferred Prime Minister – 51% to 35%. Dutton hasn’t bombed, but he hasn’t soared either.
The Libs have leaned into social media attack ads and targeted Teal Independents, hoping to reclaim lost ground. But a compelling narrative for change has been elusive. Surprisingly, they’ve not gone hard on fears of a Labor-Green coalition – an open goal that’s been left untaken.
Polls: Labor in lead
Latest polls put Labor ahead on a two-party preferred basis, 52% to 48%. That’s enough – just – for a win.
Campaigns matter
The broader point? Campaigns matter more than ever. As voters increasingly rely on algorithm-driven social feeds rather than traditional news, they’re tuning in later. And when they do, the campaign can still shift the outcome.
This weekend, Australia might just prove it again.
