Yields hit by drought
British farmers are facing a second successive year of poor harvests, with dry weather, low prices and reduced subsidies piling pressure on the industry.
Preliminary estimates from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board suggest wheat yields will fall to 7.3 tonnes per hectare this season – 9 per cent below the 10-year average. The shortfall follows long dry spells that left crops without vital soil moisture during key growth stages. Barley yields have been more stable, while oats are down 13 per cent.
“Growing crops in the UK isn’t easy,” said Jamie Burrows of the National Farmers’ Union, warning that extreme weather patterns are becoming more frequent and unpredictable.
Prices remain subdued
Despite weaker domestic harvests, wholesale wheat prices remain low at about £169 per tonne due to strong international supply. That is a far cry from the £300 peak seen in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Defra data shows total English land devoted to cereals and oilseeds has dropped to a record low of 2.7 million hectares, continuing a long-term decline.
Subsidy shift sparks anger
Farmers are also grappling with changes to government support. Since Brexit, the UK has moved from EU-style direct subsidies to Environmental Land Management schemes, which reward environmental actions such as soil protection and hedgerow management. Many argue the schemes erode food security and reduce viable farmed land.
The 2024 Sustainable Farming Incentive scheme was oversubscribed, leaving thousands unable to secure support. Defra later reopened applications for 3,000 farmers, but capped the payments available.
Tax changes add pressure
Further strain is expected from inheritance tax reforms set to come into force in 2026. Under the changes, farmers with agricultural assets worth more than £1 million will face the levy, prompting protests in London and warnings from unions about threats to family farming.
Although a study by the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation suggested most affected estates could cover the bill with non-farm assets, confidence in the sector remains low. A recent Defra survey found 72 per cent of English farmers were “not at all confident” that current government reforms would secure a successful future for farming.
For many, the combination of poor weather, falling yields, subsidy changes and tax reforms has created the toughest conditions in decades – with no guarantee of relief next season.
