By any political measure, the 2025 local elections mark a historic rupture. The duopoly of Labour and the Conservatives – which has dominated British politics for over a century – is teetering. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has crashed through the firewall that protected the old order, turning council chambers into battlegrounds and chalking up hundreds of seats. In doing so, he’s declared war not just on Labour or the Tories, but on the very idea of two-party politics.
No fluke
This wasn’t a fluke. Reform’s victory in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election – by a whisker, yes, but in what should have been safe Labour territory – shows this isn’t a protest vote. It’s a populist insurgency fuelled by resentment, anger and a hunger for something radically different.
Eyes on No.10
Farage has weaponised dissatisfaction. He’s captured the same volatile energy that drove Brexit, tuned it to modern grievances – immigration, public services, Net Zero, a sense of national decline – and channelled it into a movement. That’s why Reform now controls seven councils and 677 seats. That’s why Farage is already talking about No.10.
Voters want boldness
Labour and the Tories have been caught flat-footed. Sir Keir Starmer tried to play it straight – no excuses, a promise of hard work – but his cautious centrism looks increasingly out of step with an electorate demanding boldness. Starmer is a technocrat in a time of turbulence. His warning against “simple ideological fixes” will sound like complacency to Reform voters who feel ignored by both main parties.
Tories: a toxic brand
Kemi Badenoch faces a deeper crisis. Her party has haemorrhaged support in both directions – to Reform on the right and to the Lib Dems in the south. She is the leader of a fractured Conservative Party that no longer knows what it stands for. The brand is toxic. The loss of nearly 700 seats is not a blip; it’s an extinction-level event for the party in its traditional heartlands.
Time to professionalise
Yet for all the bombast and momentum, Farage’s path to power is far from assured. Reform has never run a local authority until now. The risk of amateurism, internal squabbles and administrative failure is real. One scandal-ridden council could derail the whole project. And unlike the old populists, Farage now must govern – and be held accountable.
Tectonic shift
The political system is fragmenting. First-past-the-post, long thought to insulate against insurgents, is now porous. Reform doesn’t need 40 per cent to win; it may only need 25. With projected vote shares showing Reform on 30 per cent – ahead of Labour and miles beyond the Tories – it’s clear the tectonic plates are shifting.
What we’re witnessing is not just a revolt. It’s a reckoning. The parties of the past are fighting for survival. And Nigel Farage, long a disruptor on the fringes, is now squarely in the arena – reshaping it, one broken tradition at a time.
