Greggs, Britain’s best-known bakery, has blamed weak consumer confidence for its market value falling by a third.
In November 2024 Deutsche Bank predicted Greggs would face an extra £97 million in employer costs because of the increase in employer national insurance.
Nevertheless, chief executive Rosie Currie remains bullish ahead of a new product launch.
1,000 extra shops
In the last decade Greggs has added almost one thousand extra shops with roadside outlets making up a much greater share of their retail estate.
Currie sees the fall in sales – a 1.7 % rise in the first nine weeks of the year compared to 2.5% for the three months ending December 31 2024 and 5% for the preceding three months – as being cyclical rather than evidence of market saturation. It’s the latter that has spooked investors.
Robots
Greggs plans to undercut rivals through its supply chain. A logistics facility will open in Derby next year where robots will pick frozen products for stores. Currie believes the UK has plenty more room for Greggs.
Greggs has 13 outlets in Newcastle, its birthplace 70 years ago, two of which remain open until 4am to catch late-night drinkers. There is one store per 15,000 people in the city compared to the UK average for Greggs stores of one per 27,000 people.
Currie uses this data as evidence of growth potential especially in areas like Kent where stores are a 20-minute drive apart.
Viewpoint
I recall the Greggs bakery in the back lane of a road in Gosforth, north of Newcastle city centre. My brother and me often waited at the door of the bakery hoping one of the van drivers would give us a cake. They often did. We even met Mr and Mrs Gregg, a lovely couple.
A new summer product, a red pepper, feta and spinach bake, is being developed at Greggs’ bakery production centre. One recalls the launch of its vegan sausage roll and the dramatic impact it had on sales.
Despite low prices, Greggs takes pride in the quality of its food and its no-nonsense approach to customer satisfaction. Greggs uses a Scotch puff pastry method to make it light and not too flaky, so it doesn’t make a mess when eaten on the run. There are 96 layers of puff pastry in their sausage rolls. Greggs’ Geordie heritage makes me feel proud and, for me, stands as an example of the best of British: never standing still and relentlessly innovating.
