By Josh Moreton
Kemi Badenoch is not leading the Conservative Party because she is the most popular, the most competent, or even the most ideologically unifying. She is leading because, in a party staggering from one political punch to the next, she was the last woman standing when the bell rang.
Now, Nigel Farage – never one to miss an opportunity to lob a grenade – says she won’t last the summer. The trouble is, he’s playing the wrong game. Badenoch may be many things, but fragile isn’t one of them. If she falls, it won’t be because she folds under pressure. It will be because the party finally crumbles beneath her.
Why she’s still standing
The modern Conservative Party is a graveyard of leaders who underestimated their own vulnerability. Johnson thought he was untouchable. Truss thought the markets would play ball. Sunak thought spreadsheets could outmanoeuvre sentiment.
Badenoch? She’s still here and will be because she understands the power of stubbornness. She doesn’t need the approval of the Tory old guard or the full backing of the parliamentary party – just enough MPs to block a clean assassination. That’s how you survive a Conservative leadership crisis. It’s not about soaring in the polls. It’s about having enough enemies who dislike each other more than they dislike you.
The Farage factor
Farage says she won’t last. But does he actually want her to go? Or is this just another well-placed dagger in his long march towards hijacking the Tory right? If Badenoch gets ousted, her party enters full meltdown. And in that chaos, Farage stops being an external disruptor and becomes the gravitational force pulling the Tory right into Reform UK.
Which is why Badenoch might just cling on longer than anyone expects. If she goes, the Tories won’t just be in trouble. They’ll be in Farage’s trouble.
Will She Survive?
Beyond the summer? Probably. Into the next election? I’d be surprised.
Not because she’s brilliant. Not because she’s loved. But because she is stubborn. And in a party addicted to short-term fixes, that might be just enough to keep her going – for now.
