The rules-based order at an end as US delivers on ‘strongman’ threats
The military operation on January 3, which saw USA forces capture the Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cillia Flores, marks a radical change from established international norms.
The targeted strikes killed an estimated 80 to 110 people and sent geopolitical shockwaves globally that have left some other countries feeling particularly threatened.
US president Donald Trump said America will “run Venezuela until such time as we can do a safe proper and judicious transition.”
Oil is the motivation
The primary motivator for Trump is most likely Venezuela’s oil. It produces roughly 850,000 barrels a day and holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
Trump said the US will now use its military to secure energy and minerals across the western hemisphere.
What now for Greenland?
What does this mean for the rest of the world? Venezuela wasn’t the only country Trump has threatened to “control.” Mexico, Greenland, Iran, Cuba and Colombia have also been named.
Trump has made repeated threats to seize Greenland since he came into office, putting a level of threat on Denmark.
If Trump annexed Greenland from Denmark, it would start a conflict with the EU and within NATO. An EU representative has rejected Trump’s claim that the US “needs to control the territory.”
The EU bloc of NATO, led by Germany and France, has backed Denmark, causing an obvious divide between the European members and the USA.
Breakdown of NATO?
The Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, said an attack on Greenland would mean an end to NATO. An attack by the USA would invoke Article 5 of North Atlantic Treaty, requiring other member states to defend them. This would theoretically cause the collapse of NATO as they would be in a paradox on who they would need to defend, as both parties are in the alliance.
Domestic support for these interventions is being fueled by a new wave of aggressive social media posts. Katie Miller, wife of Trump’s deputy chief of staff, posted on X a photo of Greenland with an American flag, captioning it “soon.”
While Greenland’s PM, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, dismissed these posts as “disrespectful fantasies,” they form an undeniably threatening atmosphere for countries in Trump’s sights.
It may even lead to the EU and other nations seeking alternative alliances to oppose US unilateralism. The United Nations described these threats as “an extremely dangerous precedent.” France and the UK have reiterated their support for the sovereignty for Denmark and Greenland. Pascal Conftarvex told TF1 TV ‘boarders cannot be changed by force.”
The new world order of ‘strongman politics’
In response, countries such as China and Russia have denounced the Venezuela move as a “crime of aggression.” Some might question whether either of these nations exhibits the moral veracity required to cast judgment on the US, or anyone else for that matter.
Regardless, the rules-based order is at an end. No one has officially declared it. But Trump’s actions have spoken louder than any words can.
Trump’s America is favouring “strongman” politics, the kind preferred by Putin and Xi, over adherence to an agreed set of principles and policies.
This is the ugly reality and the quicker world leaders wise up to this fact, the better it will be for them – at least until 2029 when Trump’s term ends.
